Which Power Conference Basketball Teams are At-Risk with the 2013-14 APR

With the summer about half over and the 2012–13 APR release well in the review mirror, it is time to look ahead to the 2013–14 APR numbers. Those numbers will start to finalize over the fall as athletes return to campus, confirming both their eligibility and whether they were retained for the 2014 fall semester. Then comes the process of gathering the data, reporting the numbers, applying exceptions and adjustments, and schools seeking waivers before the final numbers and penalties are released in a little over 10 months or so.

Given the volatile nature of men’s basketball APR numbers, I looked at any major conference team (plus UConn as defending champs) which had a 2012–13 multiyear APR of 950 or less. The main components of the analysis were single-year APR scores from the last four years (three of which will be used in 2013–14) and ESPN’s Jeff Goodman’s transfer list which is the best publicly available source of which men’s basketball players were not retained.

The picture that emerges is that a team’s 2012–13 APR score is not a great indicator of the risk that team will face a postseason ban for their 2013–14 score. Texas A&M has the lowest score at 912 but drops a sub–900 score in 2013–14. On the other hand Auburn, at 940, drops a high score and could burn through that breathing room making room for Bruce Pearl’s roster overhaul.

Texas A&M

Multiyear APR: 912
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 846
– 2010–11: 907
– 2011–12: 920
– 2012–13: 980

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Three

Texas A&M has a big hole to climb out of but will get a big boost in that regard because of the 846 from 2009–10 that will be dropped. The Aggies can probably afford a dip even into the 920s this year, which would require more than just the three departures this spring.

Texas Tech

Multiyear APR: 936
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 1000
– 2010–11: 877
– 2011–12: 961
– 2012–13: 913

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Two

The trouble for Texas Tech is that it drops a perfect score of 1000 but has to carry an awful score of 877 for another year. The 913 from the most recent APR cohort is also not helping at all. Two departures might not seem like a lot, but losing just two points out of the maximum of 52 possible for men’s basketball gives you a score of 961. That might not be enough for the Red Raiders.

UConn

Multiyear APR: 936
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 826
– 2010–11: 978
– 2011–12: 947
– 2012–13: 1000

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: One

UConn is not in any real danger as the 826 from 2009–10 is dragging down the APR and will fall off this year. That leaves the Huskies with three decent to very good scores including a perfect 1000 in 2012–13. Barring some sort of unforeseeable exodus or widespread academic problems, UConn will be fine.

Arkansas

Multiyear APR: 937
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 918
– 2010–11: 957
– 2011–12: 977
– 2012–13: 902

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: One

Arkansas should be OK this year without much departure activity and dropping its second lowest score. But the following two years will need to see improvement as Arkansas drops its two highest scores and has to carry a 902 for three more. Otherwise the Razorbacks will hang around the cutline, which is especially dangerous given the volatility of men’s basketball APR scores.

North Carolina

Multiyear APR: 938
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 961
– 2010–11: 909
– 2011–12: 959
– 2012–13: 917

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Zero

North Carolina exhibits the same concerning up-and-down trend as Syracuse did last year, albeit not quite to the same degree. They will need a fairly good score this year with their highest score of 961 falling away, but no transfers out is a good start. UNC’s APR will be more interesting long term, to see if the changes the school has pledged show up in that metric, especially as focus of the scandal shifts to men’s basketball.

Washington State

Multiyear APR: 938
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 963
– 2010–11: 900
– 2011–12: 962
– 2012–13: 926

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Four (one will graduate, one midyear)

Washington State is playing with a bit of fire here. They drop their highest score, have to carry a 900 for another year, and already had four departures although one will graduate and thus we can assume will earn full points. The one midyear departure hurts beyond the potential for lost points as well; he is not in the cohort for the spring semester. This reduces the total points possible, meaning every point lost is more significant. Coug Center covered Wazzu’s situation in more detail.

California

Multiyear APR: 939
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 887
– 2010–11: 977
– 2011–12: 961
– 2012–13: 938

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Two, one at midyear

Cal should be fine as the 887 falls away and the three remaining scores are above 930. Only two departures so far makes a very poor score unlikely.

Auburn

Multiyear APR: 940
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 966
– 2010–11: 957
– 2011–12: 896
– 2012–13: 936

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Zero

I covered Auburn’s situation in more detail earlier this summer. Their problems are the high scores that will fall off over the next two years and the potential departures needed to make way for up to seven incoming players.

Mississippi State

Multiyear APR: 945
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 961
– 2010–11: 944
– 2011–12: 851
– 2012–13: 1000

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Three, two at midyear

Mississippi State’s 945 score looks OK but two scores above 930 will have to be replaced the next two years and the 851 will be around for a while as well. Three departures already with two at the midyear lower the odds of the Bulldogs posting a very good score this year, putting more pressure on them next year.

Oregon

Multiyear APR: 945
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 912
– 2010–11: 950
– 2011–12: 952
– 2012–13: 974

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Five

Dropping the 912 from 2009–10 means it would take a disaster for Oregon to face a postseason ban in 2015–16. The trouble for Oregon is that 2013–14 may produce just that type of disaster. Five departures is a lot, plus the circumstances of some of those players leaving the university makes additional lost points more likely. Brandon Austin was also a midyear transfer into Oregon, meaning the Ducks had an open scholarship in the fall, reducing the number of points possible.

TCU

Multiyear APR: 946
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 962
– 2010–11: 927
– 2011–12: 918
– 2012–13: 979

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: None

TCU needs at least a decent score to make up for the 962 they will lose in 2013–14. That should be fairly straight-forward with no departures showing up on Jeff Goodman’s list.

Nebraska

Multiyear APR: 947
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 947
– 2010–11: 896
– 2011–12: 940
– 2012–13: 1000

Departures according to Jeff Goodman: Four including one midyear

Nebraska has some breathing room but needs one more good year to avoid problems with the 896 from 2010–11 sticking around through 2013–14. Four departures will not help the Huskers’ score, although dipping low enough to result in a postseason ban in 2015–16 is unlikely.

Oklahoma State

Multiyear APR: 948
Single-Year APRs:
– 2009–10: 895
– 2010–11: 927
– 2011–12: 1000
– 2012–13: 960